Understanding the Dynamics, Predictability, and Changes of Multiyear La Niña Events

Hosts: Xian Wu and Andrew Wittenberg

Multiyear La Niña events have occurred frequently in recent decades, causing devastating worldwide impacts. The upcoming winter of 2023/2024 is anticipated to witness a strong El Niño event, which may trigger another multiyear La Niña event in the subsequent two to three years. The scope of this project is adaptable, and the candidate is encouraged to explore their own interests. The intern and mentor will work together to refine the focus, but here are some suggested areas of exploration: 1) Detect and understand historical and future changes in the frequency of multiyear La Niña, particularly the exceptionally rare triple-year La Niña events; 2) Assess multiyear predictability of historical cases and the event expected for 2024–2025; 3) Investigate the potential biases in simulating multiyear La Niña events, pinpointing areas where model improvements are needed. These topics can be explored by leveraging state-of-the-art simulations conducted with the NOAA/GFDL SPEAR global climate model, including large-ensemble simulations, initialized hindcasts and real-time forecasts, and surface nudging or flux-adjusted simulations. The intern should have an interest in utilizing programming and scripting languages such as Python, R, MATLAB, or NCL for data analysis and visualization.