Example output of an end-to-end ecosystem model coupling a biogeochemical and a pelagic food web model, from plankton to upper trophic levels and fisheries. The graph shows pathways between sockeye salmon prey and all predators. Light blue edges indicate all links associated with primary production, grazing, and predation; purple edges are those leading to sockeye salmon from their prey groups; dark blue indicates all other predation links leading from those prey groups. Kearney, et al., 2015.
The earth system models that were developed in collaboration with GFDL are being applied to understanding a wide variety of societally-relevant climate problems. These include the impacts of climate change and natural climate variability on sea-level (an application of the ocean and cryospheric components of the modeling system), and the attribution of climate change to natural and anthropogenic forcing. Examples of the possible range of earth system model applications include air quality, extreme weather events and drought, and ecosystem impacts of climate change.
Air quality applications of earth system science studied by CIMES include: the impact of climate change and variability on air-quality via ecosystem-atmosphere feedbacks; the impact of nitrogen on air-quality; the seasonal prediction of extreme Ozone and particulate matter pollution.
CIMES research on extreme weather and drought application includes tropical cyclone modeling and storm-surge and flood hazards; extreme rainfall and flooding by warm season convection; seasonal and interannual forecasting and decadal changes in water availability; heat waves and urban climates.
The impact of climate variability and climate change on marine ecosystems research in CIMES includes the application of seasonal to decadal prediction in real world management scenarios, fostering the use of ESMs to support NOAA’s commitment to promote sustainable management strategies that lead to healthy and productive marine ecosystems; century-scale projections and simulations of marine ecosystems; novel observation systems and ecosystem diagnostics; continued development of ecosystem models; assessment of high-resolution earth system model simulations of key ecosystems. CIMES research also examines links between climate and infectious disease.