Climate models project tropical warming is amplified aloft relative to the surface in responseto increased CO2. Here we show moist adiabatic adjustment overpredicts the multimodel mean 300 hPatemperature response by 16.6–25.3% across the CMIP5 model hierarchy. We show three mechanismsinfluence overprediction: climatological large-scale…

Africa contains some of the most vulnerable ecosystems to fires. Successful seasonal prediction of fire activity over these fire-prone regions remains a challenge and relies heavily on in-depth understanding of various driving mechanisms underlying fire evolution. Here, we assess the seasonal environmental drivers and predictability of African…

The clear sky greenhouse effect (G) is defined as the trapping of infrared radiation by the atmosphere in the absence of clouds. The magnitude and variability of G is an important element in the understanding of Earth’s energy balance; yet the quantification of the governing factors of G is poor. The global mean G averaged over 2000 to 2016 is…

The clear sky greenhouse effect (G) is defined as the trapping of infrared radiation by the atmosphere in the absence of clouds. The magnitude and variability of G is an important element in the understanding of Earth's energy balance; yet the quantification of the governing factors of G is poor. The global mean G averaged over 2000 to 2016 is…

We extend the locking technique to separate the poleward shift of the atmospheric circulation in response to quadrupled CO2 into contributions from (1) CO2 increase, (2) cloud radiative effects, and (3) wind and surface humidity‐induced surface heat exchange. In aquaplanet simulations, wind and surface humidity‐induced surface heat exchange…