We use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next‐Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much‐improved…

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA‐TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The…

Amplification of the ocean carbon sink during El Niño events partially offset terrestrial biosphere carbon losses to the atmosphere, but uncertainties in the magnitude, timing, and spatial extent of the ocean response confound our understanding of the global carbon budget and its sensitivity to climate. Here, we examine the mechanisms…

Clear-sky CO2 forcing is known to vary significantly over the globe, but the state dependence that controls this is not well understood. Here we extend the formalism of Wilson and Gea-Banacloche to obtain a quantitatively accurate analytical model for spatially varying instantaneous CO2 forcing, which depends only on surface temperature T…

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an alternating, descending pattern of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with a period averaging 28 months. The QBO was disrupted in 2016, and arguably again in 2020, by the formation of an anomalous easterly shear zone, and unprecedented stagnation and ascent of shear zones aloft. Several…

It has been suggested that the freshwater flux due to the recent melting of the Antarctic ice-sheet/shelf will suppress ventilation in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we performed idealized  earth  system  simulations  to  examine  the  impacts  of  Antarctic  meltwater  on surface phytoplankton biomass in the Antarctic Ocean. The enhanced…

The observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood…

The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast‐oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with Flux Adjustment (FLOR‐FA). The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to diagnose ET. A simulation of the recent historical climate is analyzed and compared with data from the…

Traditional general circulation models, or GCMs—that is, three-dimensional dynamical models with unresolved terms represented in equations with tunable parameters—have been a mainstay of climate research for several decades, and some of the pioneering studies have recently been recognized by a Nobel prize in Physics. Yet, there is considerable…

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert significant socioeconomic impacts in western North America, where 30 of the annual precipitation is determined by ARs that occur in less than 15 of winter time. ARs are thus beneficial to water supply but can produce extreme precipitation hazards when making landfall. While most prevailing research has focused on…

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic led to a widespread reduction in aerosol emissions. Using satellite observations and climate model simulations, we study the underlying mechanisms of the large decreases in solar clear‐sky reflection (3.8 W m−2 or 7%) and aerosol optical depth (0.16 W m−2 or 32%) observed over the East Asian…

The current GFDL seasonal prediction system achieved retrospective sea ice extent (SIE) skill without direct sea ice data assimilation. Here we develop sea ice data assimilation, shown to be a key source of skill for seasonal sea ice predictions, in GFDL’s next-generation prediction system, the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System…

In this study, we examine extremes of atmospheric water balance components through analyses of annual maxima of precipitable water and water vapor transport. Our analyses are grounded in Extreme Value Theory, using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a platform for assessing water balance extremes. Annual maxima of atmospheric…

For over two decades, satellite ocean color missions have revealed spatio-temporal variations in marine chlorophyll. Seasonal cycles and interannual changes of the physical environment drive the nutrient and chlorophyll variations. In order to identify contributions of seasonal and interannual components on chlorophyll, the present study…

Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity. Here, we quantify global and local extinction risks in the ocean across a range of climate futures on the basis of the ecophysiological limits of diverse animal species and calibration against the fossil record. With accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, species losses from…