The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic led to a widespread reduction in aerosol emissions. Using satellite observations and climate model simulations, we study the underlying mechanisms of the large decreases in solar clear‐sky reflection (3.8 W m−2 or 7%) and aerosol optical depth (0.16 W m−2 or 32%) observed over the East Asian…

Progress within physical oceanography has been concurrent with the increasing sophistication of tools available for its study. The incorporation of machine learning (ML) techniques offers exciting possibilities for advancing the capacity and speed of established methods and for making substantial and serendipitous discoveries. Beyond vast…

The advent of digital computing in the 1950s sparked a revolution in the science of weather and climate. Meteorology, long based on extrapolating patterns in space and time, gave way to computational methods in a decade of advances in numerical weather forecasting. Those same methods also gave rise to computational climate science, studying…

Midlatitude baroclinic waves drive extratropical weather and climate variations, but their predictability beyond 2 weeks has been deemed low. Here we analyze a large ensemble of climate simulations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and demonstrate that seasonal variations of baroclinic wave activity (BWA) are potentially…

This study uses cloud and radiative properties collected from in situ and remote sensing instruments during two coordinated campaigns over the Southern Ocean between Tasmania and Antarctica in January–February 2018 to evaluate the simulations of clouds and precipitation in nudged‐meteorology simulations with the CAM6 and AM4 global climate…

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is an alternating, descending pattern of zonal winds in the tropical stratosphere with a period averaging 28 months. The QBO was disrupted in 2016, and arguably again in 2020, by the formation of an anomalous easterly shear zone, and unprecedented stagnation and ascent of shear zones aloft. Several…

The current GFDL seasonal prediction system achieved retrospective sea ice extent (SIE) skill without direct sea ice data assimilation. Here we develop sea ice data assimilation, shown to be a key source of skill for seasonal sea ice predictions, in GFDL’s next-generation prediction system, the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System…

The observed trend in Earth’s energy imbalance (TEEI), a measure of the acceleration of heat uptake by the planet, is a fundamental indicator of perturbations to climate. Satellite observations (2001–2020) reveal a significant positive globally-averaged TEEI of 0.38 ± 0.24 Wm−2decade−1, but the contributing drivers have yet to be understood…

Human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, land-use change, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, emission of livestock, and waste excretion accelerate the transformation of reactive N and its impact on the marine environment. This study elucidates that anthropogenic N fluxes (ANFs) from the atmospheric deposition and river exacerbates Arctic…

Monsoons emerge over a range of land surface conditions and exhibit varying physical characteristics over the seasonal cycle, from onset to withdrawal. Systematically varying the moisture and albedo parameters over land in an idealized modeling framework allows one to analyze the physics underlying the successive stages of monsoon development…

Similarity and scaling arguments underlying the existence of a logarithmic wind profile in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) rest on the restrictive assumptions of negligible Coriolis effects (no wind turning in the ASL) and vertically‐uniform pressure gradients (barotropic atmospheric boundary layer, ABL). This paper alleviates these…

The North Atlantic ocean is key to climate through its role in heat transport and storage. Climate models suggest that the circulation is weakening but the physical drivers of this change are poorly constrained. Here, the root mechanisms are revealed with the explicitly transparent machine learning method Tracking global Heating with Ocean…

We live, it is said, in the age of “data science”. Machine learning (ML) from data astonishes us with its advances, such as autonomous vehicles and translation tools, and also worries us with its ability to monitor and interpret human faces, gestures and behaviors. In science, we are witnessing a new explosion of literature around machine…

Bubbles bursting at the ocean surface are an important source of sea-spray aerosol. We describe jet drop production, from ensembles of high fidelity numerical simulations of bubble bursting, validated against experimental results. The number of jet drops, their size, and velocity are controlled by the ratio of the bubble size, Rb, and the visco…

Antarctic marine biological variability modulates climate systems via the biological pump. However, the knowledge of biological response in the Southern Ocean to climate variability still has been lack of understanding owing to limited ocean color data in the high latitude region. We investigated the surface chlorophyll concentration responses…

In this study, we examine extremes of atmospheric water balance components through analyses of annual maxima of precipitable water and water vapor transport. Our analyses are grounded in Extreme Value Theory, using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution as a platform for assessing water balance extremes. Annual maxima of atmospheric…

Bubble-mediated gas exchange in turbulent flow is critical in bubble column chemical reactors as well as for ocean-atmosphere gas exchange related to air entrained by breaking waves. Understanding the transfer rate from a single bubble in turbulence at large Péclet numbers (defined as the ratio between the rate of advection and diffusion of gas…

Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation…

Numerical models are often used to simulate estuarine physics and water quality under scenarios of future climate conditions. However, representing the wide range of uncertainty about future climate often requires an infeasible number of computationally expensive model simulations. Here, we develop and test a computationally inexpensive…

In the tropics, the tropopause is exceptionally cold and air entering the stratosphere is dehydrated down to a few parts per million leading to the extreme dryness of Earth’s stratosphere. Deep convection typically detrains a few kilometers below the tropopause, but the few storms that may reach up to the tropopause could have an outsize effect…

In the South Pacific Ocean, upper and lower Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW and LCDW, respectively) occupy the deep layers; however, the presence and fate of these two water masses in the western equatorial Pacific have been mostly based on sparse measurements in both space and time. In this study, unprecedented deep measurements from three…

We study bubble break-up in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence by direct numerical
simulations of the two-phase incompressible Navier–Stokes equations. We create the
turbulence by forcing in physical space and introduce the bubble once a statistically
stationary state is reached. We perform a large ensemble of simulations to…

We present a linear equation for the Walker circulation streamfunction and find its analytic solutions given specified convective heating. In a linear Boussinesq fluid with Rayleigh damping and Newtonian cooling, the streamfunction obeys a Poisson’s equation, forced by gradients in the meridionally averaged diabatic heating and Coriolis force…

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is a powerful oxidant in the troposphere controlling the atmospheric lifetimes of many short-lived climate forcers such as methane. In this study, the GFDL-AM4.1 model is used to investigate the meteorological impacts on OH and the methane budget and lifetime over 1980–2017. Driven by meteorological reanalyses from the…

Roll vortices are frequent features of a hurricane’s boundary layer, with kilometer or sub-kilometer horizontal scale. In this study, we found that large roll vortices with O (10 km) horizontal wavelength occurred over land in Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy (2012) during landfall on New Jersey. Various characteristics of roll vortices were…

Compared to the Arctic, seasonal predictions of Antarctic sea ice have received relatively little attention. In this work, we utilize three coupled dynamical prediction systems developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to assess the seasonal prediction skill and predictability of Antarctic sea ice. These systems, based on the FLOR,…

The excitation of the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been considered as one of the most important predictability sources on subseasonal timescales over the extratropical Pacific and North America. However, until recently, the interactions between tropical heating and other…

Representing biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is an important challenge for coupled carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) land models. Initial representations of BNF in land models applied simplified phenomenological relationships. More recent representations of BNF are mechanistic and include the dynamic response of symbiotic BNF to N limitation of…

Oceanic lee waves are generated in the deep stratified ocean by the flow of ocean currents over sea floor topography, and when they break, they can lead to mixing in the stably stratified ocean interior. While the theory of linear lee waves is well established, the nonlinear mechanisms leading to mixing are still under investigation. Tidally…

Coastal ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic stressors such as harmful algal blooms and hypoxia through the combined effects of eutrophication and warming. As a major terrestrial nitrogen source to the ocean, rivers play a key role in shaping coastal nitrogen budgets and biogeochemical cycling. Combining an enhanced…

Climate models often show errors in simulating and predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activity, but the sources of these errors are not well understood. This study proposes an evaluation framework and analyzes three sets of experiments conducted using a seasonal prediction model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). These…

Verification methods for convection-allowing models (CAMs) should consider the finescale spatial and temporal detail provided by CAMs, and including both neighborhood and object-based methods can account for displaced features that may still provide useful information. This work explores both contingency table–based verification techniques and…

The discrete baroclinic modes of quasigeostrophic theory are incomplete and the incompleteness manifests as a loss of information in the projection process. The incompleteness of the baroclinic modes is related to the presence of two previously unnoticed stationary step-wave solutions of the Rossby wave problem with flat boundaries. These step…

Tropical anvil clouds are an important player in Earth’s climate and climate sensitivity, but simulations of anvil clouds are uncertain. Here we identify and investigate one source of uncertainty by demonstrating a marked increase of anvil cloud fraction with resolution in cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. This…

Intermittent transitions between turbulent and nonturbulent states are ubiquitous in the stable atmospheric surface layer (ASL). Data from two field experiments in Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and from direct numerical simulations are used to probe these state transitions so as to (i) identify statistical metrics for the detection of intermittency, (ii)…

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly influences phytoplankton in the tropical Pacific, with El Niño conditions suppressing productivity in the equatorial Pacific (EP) and placing nutritional stresses on marine ecosystems. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) Earth System Model version 4.1 (ESM4.1) captures observed…

The once-contiguous Ellesmere Ice Shelf, first reported in writing by European explorers in 1876, and now almost completely disintegrated, has rolling, wave-like surface topography, the origin of which we investigate using a viscous buckling instability analysis. We show that rolls can develop during a winter season (~ 100 d) if sea-ice…

The local climatic impacts of historical expansion of irrigation are substantial, but the distant impacts are poorly understood, and their governing mechanisms generally have not been rigorously analyzed. Our experiments with an earth-system model suggest that irrigation in the Middle East and South Asia may enhance rainfall in a large portion…

Large tabular icebergs account for the majority of ice mass calved from Antarctic ice shelves, but are omitted from climate models. Specifically, these models do not account for iceberg breakup and as a result, modeled large icebergs could drift to low latitudes. Here, we develop a physically based parameterization of iceberg breakup based on…

Laterally confined marine outlet glaciers exhibit a diverse range of behaviours. This study investigates time-evolving and steady configurations of such glaciers. Using simplified analytic models, it determines conditions for steady states, their stability and expressions for the rate of the calving-front migration for three widely used calving…

Ocean circulation models have systematic errors in large-scale horizontal density gradients due to estimating the grid-cell-mean density by applying the nonlinear seawater equation of state to the grid-cell-mean water properties. In frontal regions where unresolved subgrid-scale (SGS) fluctuations are significant, dynamically relevant errors in…

GCM-Filters is a python package that allows scientists to perform spatial filtering analysis
in an easy, flexible and efficient way. The package implements the filtering method based on
the discrete Laplacian operator that was introduced by Grooms et al. (2021). The filtering
algorithm is analogous to smoothing via diffusion; hence the…

A negative shortwave cloud feedback associated with higher extratropical liquid water content in mixed-phase clouds is a common feature of global warming simulations, and multiple mechanisms have been hypothesized. A set of process-level experiments performed with an idealized global climate model (a dynamical core with passive water and cloud…

The Fires, Asian, and Stratospheric Transport–Las Vegas Ozone Study (FAST-LVOS) was conducted in May and June of 2017 to study the transport of ozone (O3) to Clark County, Nevada, a marginal non-attainment area in the southwestern United States (SWUS). This 6-week (20 May–30 June 2017) field campaign used lidar,…

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary…

The air quality impact of increased wildfires in a warming climate has often been overlooked in current model projections, owing to the lack of interactive fire emissions of gases and particles responding to climate change in Earth System Model (ESM) projection simulations. Here, we combine multiensemble projections of wildfires in three ESMs…

Gas bubbles bursting at the sea surface produce drops, which contribute to marine aerosols. The contamination or enrichment of water by surface-active agents, of biological or anthropogenic origin, has long been recognized as affecting the bubble bursting processes and the spray composition. However, despite an improved understanding of the…

The current GFDL seasonal prediction system, the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR), has shown skillful prediction of Arctic sea ice extent with atmosphere and ocean constrained by observations. In this study we present improvements in sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice by directly assimilating…

Bubbles bursting at the ocean surface are an important source of sea-spray aerosol. Indeed, a bubble bursting at the surface of a liquid produces a jet that then breaks up leading to several droplets. Here we simulate the bursting of a single bubble by numerical simulation of the axisymmetric two-phases air-water Navier-Stokes equations in the…