Publications

241 Publications

2019

Journal Article

Entrainment in cumulus convection remains ill-understood and difficult to quantify. For instance, entrainment is widely believed to be a fundamentally turbulent process, even though Turner (1957) pointed out that dry thermals entrain primarily because of buoyancy (via a dynamical constraint requiring an increase in radius r). Furthermore,…

Journal Article

The recent borderline El Niño events of 2014/2015 and 2018/2019 provided operational centers with unique challenges because of the apparent absence of typical coupling between the tropical atmosphere and ocean before onset. The mismatch between atmosphere and ocean raises questions about its causes and predictability. Here we analyze…

Journal Article

Most dust forecast models focus on short, subseasonal lead times, that is, 3 to 6 days, and the skill of seasonal prediction is not clear. In this study we examine the potential of seasonal dust prediction in the United States using an observation‐constrained regression model and key variables predicted by a seasonal prediction model developed…

Journal Article

Improving the seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity demands a robust analysis of the prediction skill and the inherent predictability of TC activity. Using the resampling technique, this study analyzes a state‐of‐the‐art prediction system and offers a robust assessment of when and where the seasonal prediction of TC activity is…

Journal Article

In this study we develop a new parameterization for turbulent mixing in the ocean surface boundary layer (OSBL), including the effect of Langmuir turbulence. This new parameterization builds on a recent study (Reichl and Hallberg, 2018, hereafter RH18), which predicts the available energy for turbulent mixing against stable stratification…

Journal Article

General circulation models use subgrid‐scale (SGS) parameterizations to represent the effects of unresolved mesoscale eddies on large‐scale motions. Most of the current SGS parameterizations are based on a theoretical understanding of transient eddies, where the mean flow is a temporal average. In this work, we use a spatial filtering analysis…

Journal Article

The clear sky greenhouse effect (G) is defined as the trapping of infrared radiation by the atmosphere in the absence of clouds. The magnitude and variability of G is an important element in the understanding of Earth's energy balance; yet the quantification of the governing factors of G is poor. The global mean G averaged over 2000 to 2016 is…

Journal Article

We use the fvGFS model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to demonstrate the potential of the upcoming United States Next‐Generation Global Prediction System for hurricane prediction. The fvGFS retrospective forecasts initialized with the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data showed much‐improved…

Journal Article

Nitrogen (N) pollution is shaped by multiple processes, the combined effects of which remain uncertain, particularly in the tropics. We use a global land biosphere model to analyze historical terrestrial-freshwater N budgets, considering the effects of anthropogenic N inputs, atmospheric CO2, land use, and climate. We estimate that globally,…

Journal Article

Extratropical weather perturbations have been linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TC) activity in observations. However, modeling studies of the extratropical impact are scarce and disagree about its importance and climate implications. Using a non‐hydrostatic regional atmospheric model, we explore the extratropical impact by artificially…

Journal Article

A new global model using the GFDL nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) coupled to physical parameterizations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS) was built at GFDL, named fvGFS. The modern dynamical core, FV3, has been selected for the National Oceanic and…

Journal Article

The role of baroclinicity, which arises from the misalignment of pressure and density gradients, is well-known in the vorticity equation, yet its role in the kinetic energy budget has never been obvious. Here, we show that baroclinicity appears naturally in the kinetic energy budget after carrying out the appropriate scale decomposition…

Journal Article

The dynamics of a marine ice sheet's grounding lines determine the rate of ice discharge from the grounded part of ice sheet into surrounding oceans. In many locations in West Antarctica ice flows into ice shelves through ice streams experiencing low driving stress. However, existing simple theories of marine ice sheets are developed under the…

Journal Article

The clear sky greenhouse effect (G) is defined as the trapping of infrared radiation by the atmosphere in the absence of clouds. The magnitude and variability of G is an important element in the understanding of Earth’s energy balance; yet the quantification of the governing factors of G is poor. The global mean G averaged over 2000 to 2016 is…

Journal Article

Six recent Langmuir turbulence parameterization schemes and five traditional schemes are implemented in a common single‐column modeling framework and consistently compared. These schemes are tested in scenarios versus matched large eddy simulations, across the globe with realistic forcing (JRA55‐do, WAVEWATCH‐III simulated waves) and initial…

Journal Article

Surface layer (SL) variables (e.g., 2‐m temperature [T2] and 10‐m wind [U10]) are diagnosed by applying the flux‐profile relationships based on Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory to the lowest model height (LMH). This assumes that the LMH is in the SL, which is approximately the bottom 10% of the boundary layer, but atmospheric general circulation…

Journal Article

The variable-resolution version of a Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3)-based global model improves the prediction of convective-scale features while maintaining skillful global forecasts. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a new variable-resolution global model with the ability to represent convective…

Journal Article

Mixed-phase clouds are frequently observed in the atmosphere. Here we present a parameterization for ice crystal concentration and ice nucleation rate based on parcel model simulations for mixed-phase stratocumulus clouds, as a complement to a previous parameterization for stratus clouds. The parcel model uses a singular (time independent)…

Journal Article

The hurricane project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) was established in 1970. By the mid-1970s pioneering research had led to the development of a new hurricane model. As the reputation of the model grew, GFDL was approached in 1986 by the director of the National…

Journal Article

Most ocean climate models do not represent ice shelf calving in a physically realistic way, even though the calving of icebergs is a major component of the mass balance for Antarctic ice shelves. The infrequency of large calving events together with the difficulty of placing observational instruments around icebergs means that little is known…

Journal Article

Global climate models consensually predict that tropical rainfall will be distributed more unevenly with global warming, i.e., dry regions or months will get drier and wet regions or months will get wetter. Previous mechanisms such as ``dry‐get‐drier, wet‐get‐wetter", ``rich‐get‐richer", or ``upped‐ante" focus on the spatial pattern of…

Journal Article

The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) took place in Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under the Tropical Cyclone Track topic. The forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track has seen significant improvements in recent decades both by numerical weather prediction models and by…

Journal Article

A review of the experimental protocol and motivation for DYAMOND, the first intercomparison project of global storm-resolving models, is presented. Nine models submitted simulation output for a 40-day (1 August–10 September 2016) intercomparison period. Eight of these employed a tiling of the sphere that was uniformly less than 5 km. By…

Journal Article

We document the configuration and emergent simulation features from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) OM4.0 ocean/sea‐ice model. OM4 serves as the ocean/sea‐ice component for the GFDL climate and Earth system models. It is also used for climate science research and is contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project…

Journal Article

Previous work has examined the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) changes for 1980–2009 based on satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU/AMSU) lower-stratospheric temperature (T LS ) observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Here we examine the BDC changes for the longer period now available (1980–2018), which also allows analysis of both the…

Journal Article

The response of ozone (O3) dry deposition to ecosystem‐atmosphere interactions is poorly understood but is central to determining the potential for extreme pollution events under current and future climate conditions. Using observations and an interactive dry deposition scheme within two dynamic vegetation land models (Geophysical Fluid…

Journal Article

We investigate the monthly prediction of North Atlantic hurricane and especially major hurricane activity based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). We compare the performance of two grid configurations: a globally uniform 25‐km grid and the other with an 8‐km interactive nest over the…

Journal Article

Exchanges between coastal and oceanic waters shape both coastal ecosystem processes and signatures that they impart on global biogeochemical cycles. The timescales of these exchanges, however, are poorly represented in current‐generation, coarse‐grid climate models. Here we provide a novel global perspective on coastal residence time (CRT) and…

Journal Article

From the earliest observations of ozone in the lower atmosphere in the 19th century, both measurement methods and the portion of the globe observed have evolved and changed. These methods have different uncertainties and biases, and the data records differ with respect to coverage (space and time), information content, and representativeness…

Journal Article

A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much…

Journal Article

We present a new global‐to‐regional model, cfvGFS, able to explicitly (without parameterization) represent convection over part of the earth. This model couples the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Finite‐Volume Cubed‐Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) to the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, augmented with a six…

Journal Article

Understanding the root causes of forecast errors and occasional very poor forecasts is essential but difficult. In this paper we investigate the relative importance of initial conditions and model formulation for medium‐range errors in 500 hPa geopotential height. The question is addressed by comparing forecasts produced with ECMWF‐IFS and NCEP…

Journal Article

Cloud dominates influence factors of atmospheric radiation, while aerosol-cloud interactions are of vital importance in its spatiotemporal distribution. In this study, a two-moment (mass and number) cloud microphysics scheme, which significantly improved the treatment of the coupled processes of aerosols and clouds, was incorporated into…

Journal Article

The outputs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L) model for the baseline experiment of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulation in the Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima common experiments of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project …

Journal Article

Flow organization into systems of fast-moving ice streams is a well-known feature of ice sheets. Fast motion is frequently the result of sliding at the base of the ice sheet. Here, we consider how this basal sliding is first initiated as the result of changes in bed temperature. We show that an abrupt sliding onset at the melting point, with no…

Journal Article

Warming-driven expansion of the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) in the equatorial Pacificwould bring very low oxygen waters closer to the ocean surface and possibly impact global carbon/nutrientcycles and local ecosystems. Global coarse Earth System Models(ESMs) show, however, disparate trendsthat poorly constrain these future changes in the upper…

Journal Article

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration participates along with a number of model centers around the world in constructing state‐of‐the‐art climate models for use in studies for climate change and prediction. GFDL's latest multipurpose atmosphere‐ocean coupled climate model, CM4.0…

Journal Article

The onset of sliding in ice sheets may not take the form of a sharp boundary between regions at the melting point, in which sliding is permitted, and regions below that temperature, in which there is no slip. Such a hard switch leads to the paradox of the bed naturally wanting to refreeze as soon as sliding has commenced. A potential…

Journal Article

Understanding the predictability limit of day-to-day weather phenomena such as midlatitude winter storms and summer monsoonal rainstorms is crucial to numerical weather prediction (NWP). This predictability limit is studied using unprecedented high-resolution global models with ensemble experiments of the European Centre for Medium-Range…

Journal Article

A subgrid‐scale eddy parameterization is developed, which makes use of an explicit eddy kinetic energy budget and can be applied at both “non‐eddying” and “eddy‐permitting” resolutions. The subgrid‐scale eddies exchange energy with the resolved flow in both directions via a parameterization of baroclinic instability (based on the established…

Journal Article

Tree allometric relationships are widely employed for estimating forest biomass and production and are basic building blocks of dynamic vegetation models. In tropical forests, allometric relationships are often modeled by fitting scale-invariant power functions to pooled data from multiple species, an approach that fails to capture changes in…

Journal Article

The overturning circulation of the global ocean is critically shaped by deep-ocean mixing, which transforms cold waters sinking at high latitudes into warmer, shallower waters. The effectiveness of mixing in driving this transformation is jointly set by two factors: the intensity of turbulence near topography and the rate at which well-mixed…

Journal Article

Responses of tropical cyclones (TCs) to CO2 doubling are explored using coupled global climate models (GCMs) with increasingly refined atmospheric/land horizontal grids (~ 200 km, ~ 50 km and ~ 25 km). The three models exhibit similar changes in background climate fields thought to regulate TC activity, such as relative sea surface temperature…

Journal Article

Explosivevolcanic eruptions have large climate impacts and can serve as observable tests of the climatic response to radiative forcing. Using a high‐resolution climate model, we contrast the climate responses to Pinatubo, with symmetric forcing, and those to Santa Maria and Agung, which had meridionally asymmetric forcing. Although Pinatubo had…

2020

Journal Article

Most climate models neglect cloud longwave (LW) scattering because scattering is considered negligible compared to strong LW absorption by clouds and greenhouse gases. While this rationale is valid for simulating extrapolar regions, it is questionable for the polar regions, where the atmosphere is dry and hence has weak absorption, and ice…

Journal Article

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been employed to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), yet these measures are already having similar effects on other directly transmitted, endemic diseases. Disruptions to the seasonal transmission patterns of these diseases may have consequences for…

Journal Article

Amplification of the ocean carbon sink during El Niño events partially offset terrestrial biosphere carbon losses to the atmosphere, but uncertainties in the magnitude, timing, and spatial extent of the ocean response confound our understanding of the global carbon budget and its sensitivity to climate. Here, we examine the mechanisms…

Journal Article

The authors analyze the global statistics of tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition (ET) in the Forecast‐oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 with Flux Adjustment (FLOR‐FA). The cyclone phase space (CPS) is used to diagnose ET. A simulation of the recent historical climate is analyzed and compared with data from the…

Journal Article

The future trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV2; however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple epidemiological models to explore estimates for the magnitude and timing of future Covid-19 cases given…

Journal Article

Dust emission is initiated when surface wind velocities exceed the threshold of wind erosion. Most dust models used constant threshold values globally. Here we use satellite products to characterize the frequency of dust events and surface properties. By matching this frequency derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)…