Predictability and Projection of Summertime Hot and Dry Compound Extreme in North America

Host: Liwei Jia

The summertime hot and dry compound extreme events exert great impacts on society.  Evidence has shown that hot and dry compound extreme will be more frequent with global warming. An interesting question is whether such compound extreme is predictable on seasonal time scale. Utilizing climate model simulations from GFDL’s SPEAR model, we study the predictability of summer compound hot and dry extremes in North America. Possible sources of predictability will be explored as well. The future changes of summertime hot and dry compound extreme over North America may also be studied using large ensemble simulations from SPEAR under various emission scenarios.